Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 9.516463 10.935953 12.465058 14.231075 16.210706 18.357502 20.857826
2025-11-16 7.415830 9.335070 11.564944 14.332197 17.658006 21.509456 26.288949
2025-11-23 6.201462 8.287938 10.834242 14.142567 18.296331 23.305516 29.766078
2025-11-30 5.399590 7.614913 10.439490 14.260526 19.243650 25.465632 33.757466
2025-12-07 4.898386 7.234669 10.326838 14.654715 20.480427 27.966383 38.213629
2025-12-14 4.287199 6.623966 9.830819 14.468265 20.901416 29.394580 41.315428
2025-12-21 3.645521 5.890063 9.082210 13.847868 20.653982 29.875487 43.130688
2025-12-28 3.392622 5.691916 9.061104 14.225920 21.780831 32.235945 47.557815
2026-01-04 3.139210 5.462362 8.965821 14.473873 22.715789 34.351344 51.714684
2026-01-11 2.830609 5.111838 8.653787 14.365604 23.108228 35.697161 54.821714
2026-01-18 2.552926 4.781099 8.340171 14.222123 23.422842 36.923431 57.783081
2026-01-25 2.333016 4.523383 8.117410 14.195866 23.899007 38.388382 61.129056
2026-02-01 2.154904 4.324492 7.980293 14.304927 24.602951 40.244035 65.166033
2026-02-08 1.965248 4.085653 7.756707 14.255107 25.048928 41.723955 68.696203
2026-02-15 1.782750 3.839263 7.496786 14.119341 25.336137 42.953836 71.869822
2026-02-22 1.656024 3.684507 7.382528 14.218166 26.002781 44.791125 76.035897
2026-03-01 1.584920 3.630429 7.442346 14.618232 27.183414 47.479794 81.620487
2026-03-08 1.439093 3.410886 7.180919 14.429765 27.352643 48.542573 84.655669
2026-03-15 1.254199 3.089550 6.701285 13.811634 26.742383 48.299167 85.569023
2026-03-22 1.205314 3.052237 6.762067 14.188528 27.884573 50.983455 91.321738
2026-03-29 1.145104 2.983666 6.755443 14.436023 28.804130 53.323179 96.577756
2026-04-05 1.052273 2.831606 6.569519 14.327962 29.073826 54.567664 100.048230
2026-04-12 0.964298 2.680653 6.373154 14.184822 29.267480 55.681676 103.326612